人类运动模式对流行病传播动态的影响
Wenbin Gu1, Wenjie Li1, Feng Gao2
1School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|February 2, 2024
概括
人类的运动模式显著影响流行病的传播. 缓慢的运动和聚集行为会产生歇斯底里循环,其中疾病的流行程度取决于最初的感染,但快速的运动会消除这种效应.
科学领域:
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算建模计算建模
背景情况:
- 人类运动模式越来越多地被认为对流行病动态的影响.
- 在网络科学中,缺乏将人类运动模式整合到流行病传播模型中的系统研究.
研究的目的:
- 研究人类运动模式,特别是移动速度和收集偏好对流行病传播动态的影响.
- 使用基于代理的模型,模拟在聚集的人群中疾病的传播.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于代理物的模型,模拟了易受感染易受感染 (SIS) 流行病过程.
- 嵌入了人类运动模式,包括移动速度和收集偏好,到模拟中.
主要成果:
- 当移动速度缓慢时,观察到流行病流行中的歇斯底里循环,特别是在高收集偏好的情况下,这表明依赖于初始种子分数.
- 当人口快速移动时,歇斯底里循环就消失了,而不管收集偏好.
- 确定了聚集人口的最佳移动速度,以最大限度地提高流行病的流行率.
结论:
- 人类的运动模式,特别是速度和聚集行为,极大地调节了流行病的传播动态.
- 在流行病传播中存在歇斯底里循环的存在取决于缓慢的移动和社会聚集趋势.
- 了解这些运动驱动的动态对于预测和控制人口中的疾病传播至关重要.
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