奎沃迪斯,小农的森林景观? 一个对LPB-RAP模型的介绍
Sonja Holler1,2, Daniel Kübler1, Olaf Conrad2
1Thünen Institute of Forestry, Hamburg, Germany.
PloS one
|February 2, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了LPB-RAP模型,这是一个模拟小农主导地区森林景观恢复 (FLR) 潜力的工具. 它通过分析各种气候和社会经济情景下的未来土地使用变化来帮助规划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 人类时代对气候和生物多样性的影响需要生态系统的恢复.
- 有效的修复需要地方到区域的行动,考虑到当前和未来的景观条件.
- 建模方法可以支持生态系统恢复的管理和政策制定.
研究的目的:
- 介绍LaForeT-PLUC-BE模型 (LPB) 和其恢复区域潜力 (RAP) 模块,称为LPB-RAP.
- 引入LPB-RAP作为一个基于像素的高分辨率场景工具,用于模拟未来的景观配置.
- 分析森林和景观恢复 (FLR) 措施在小农主导的森林景观中的潜力.
主要方法:
- 开发了LPB-RAP,一个启发式的空间决策支持系统 (SDSS).
- 采用气候,人为和限制参数的土地使用和土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 的集成动态概率建模.
- 利用了用户定义的场景输入 (SSP,RCP) 和在厄瓜多尔 (2018-2100) 实例化应用SSP2-RCP4.5.
主要成果:
- 在对比的场景下模拟未来的景观配置,有或没有FLR措施.
- 使用最多五个恢复区域潜力 (RAP) 的土地使用类型 (LUT) 描绘的FLR潜力.
- 提供了埃斯梅拉达斯省案例研究的公规模,年度解决结果.
结论:
- LPB-RAP是一个新的SDSS工具,用于小农占主导地位的森林景观.
- 该模型支持近期的自上而下的计划与长期的自下而上的建模.
- 建议对FLR实施进行进一步的现场调查和利益相关者的参与.
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