在气候变化和社会经济发展下预测全球小麦种植分布
Xi Guo1, Puying Zhang1, Yaojie Yue1
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Chinese Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
The Science of the total environment
|February 2, 2024
概括
未来的全球小麦种植将受到社会经济因素和气候变化的重大影响. 整合这些元素揭示了转变,使南半球受益,同时可能减少北半球的区域.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 全球作物种植受到社会经济因素和气候变化的影响.
- 以前的研究很少探讨社会经济因素和气候变化对未来作物分配的综合影响.
- 了解这些相互作用对于全球粮食安全和农业规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合社会经济因素和气候变化情景来预测未来的全球小麦种植分布.
- 分析不同气候变化和社会经济路径下的小麦种植的空间和时间模式.
- 评估一种结合MaxEnt和SPAM (社会经济途径和农业模型) 的新方法的预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用MaxEnt-SPAM方法来模拟小麦种植分布.
- 预测近期 (2011-2040年),中期 (2041-2070年) 和长期 (2071-2100年) 的小麦种植模式.
- 使用代表性度路径 (RCP) 和共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景 (RCP2.6-SSP1,RCP4.5-SSP2,RCP8.5-SSP3).
主要成果:
- MaxEnt-SPAM方法显示出高预测准确度 (超过80%),与已知的数据集有显著的相关性.
- 发现社会经济发展显著改变了潜在的小麦种植面积,一般偏爱南半球 (例如非洲) 而不是北半球.
- 长期预测表明,在RCP2.6-SSP1下,小麦种植面积可能减少 (-7%) 和全球产量下降 (例如,在RCP2.6-SSP1下下降-16%),而其他情景显示扩张或较小的下降.
结论:
- 综合社会经济因素对于准确预测气候变化下的未来作物分布至关重要.
- 气候变化和社会经济发展将推动全球小麦种植的时间和空间发生重大变化.
- 调查结果为农业政策和适应战略在不断变化的世界提供了关键的见解.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
18.5K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.5K
Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.7K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.7K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.6K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.6K
Multiple Regression
3.0K
Multiple regression assesses a linear relationship between one response or dependent variable and two or more independent variables. It has many practical applications.
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
3.0K
Light Acquisition
8.5K
In order to produce glucose, plants need to capture sufficient light energy. Many modern plants have evolved leaves specialized for light acquisition. Leaves can be only millimeters in width or tens of meters wide, depending on the environment. Due to competition for sunlight, evolution has driven the evolution of increasingly larger leaves and taller plants, to avoid shading by their neighbors with contaminant elaboration of root architecture and mechanisms to transport water and nutrients.
8.5K


