在新鲜肉饼中对沙门氏菌的定量微生物风险评估
Leonardos Stathas1, Zafiro Aspridou1, Konstantinos Koutsoumanis1
1Laboratory of Food Microbiology and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece.
对肉中的沙门氏菌进行了定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA),发现疾病的平均概率为1.19*10^-4. 温度和保质期是减少沙门氏菌风险的关键缓解目标.
科学领域:
- 食品安全 食品安全
- 微生物风险评估 微生物风险评估
- 动物传染病是动物传播的疾病.
背景情况:
- 沙门氏菌 spp. 沙门氏菌 是欧盟严重动物传染病的主要原因.
- 定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 正在推进食品安全评估.
- 新鲜的肉是沙门氏菌传播的潜在载体.
研究的目的:
- 进行沙门氏菌spp. 的QMRA. 在新鲜的肉饼中为欧盟人口提供.
- 确定影响风险的关键因素,并评估缓解策略.
- 提供最新的风险评估,并指导未来的干预措施.
主要方法:
- 使用二维蒙特卡洛模拟来分离变化和不确定性.
- 包括工业加工,零售,国内储存和等领域的暴露评估.
- 通过将八个已发表的模型与Pert分布相结合,开发了一种剂量反应模型.
主要成果:
- 预测疾病的平均概率为1.19*10^-4 (95%CI. : 5.28*10^-5 - 3.57*10^-4) 的时间.
- 确定偏好 (r=-0.39) 是最有影响力的参数,其次是剂量反应 (r=0.22) 和初始沙门氏菌度 (r=0.11).
- 确定增加温度和减少保质期是最有效的缓解策略.
结论:
- QMRA为评估肉饼中的沙门氏菌风险提供了一个强大的框架.
- 消费者的行为和产品的保质期是关键的控制点.
- 本研究强调了科学研究的目标和实际干预策略,以提高食品安全.
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