预测性风险模型,预测急性椎炎在第一次发作后复发的风险
Juan Carlos Pastor-Mora1, Carlos Fortea-Sanchís2, Alba Coret-Franco1
1Coloproctology Unit, General and Digestive Surgery Department, Castellón General University Hospital, Castellón de la Plana, Spain.
急性椎炎 (AD) 的复发是常见的. 一个新的预测得分可以识别高风险患者,帮助个性化跟踪和治疗AD复发.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 外科胃肠道外科手术
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
背景情况:
- 急性分泌腺炎 (AD) 复发经常导致重入医院和潜在的手术.
- 个性化风险因素和开发预测工具对于管理AD至关重要.
- 识别高风险复发的患者对于量身定制的管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定急性管炎第一个发作后复发的风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于估计AD复发风险的预测得分.
- 促进基于复发风险的个性化患者随访和治疗.
主要方法:
- 这是一项前性观察性研究,对368名患有阿尔茨海默病第一个发作的患者进行了观察.
- 单变量和多变量考克斯回归分析以确定复发预测因子.
- 使用生存分析开发和验证预测风险评分.
主要成果:
- 复发发生在19.3%的患者 (71/368) 中,随访时间中位数为50个月.
- 复发的独立预测因素是结肠穿孔 (HR 3.67) 和CRP>100 mg/dl (HR 1.69).
- 5个变量得分确定了中等风险 (19%的复发率) 和高风险 (42%的复发率) 组.
结论:
- 预测得分可以估计第一个AD事件后的复发风险.
- 早期检测高风险患者,使得个性化后续和治疗.
- 这一分数有助于区分急性椎炎复发的管理策略.
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