一个综合的人口模型揭示了竞争下属非洲野狗的源-沉没动态,与人为猎物枯竭有关
Scott Creel1,2, Johnathan Reyes de Merkle1,2, Ben Goodheart1,2
1Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
The Journal of animal ecology
|February 5, 2024
概括
当猎物稀少时,非洲野生狗的数量会下降,即使竞争对手较少. 我们的研究表明,减少猎物密度会对野狗的生存和繁殖产生负面影响,导致当地人口减少.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 野生动物管理 野生动物管理
背景情况:
- 非洲的大型食肉动物种群正在减少,主要是由于草食动物猎物的可用性减少.
- 像非洲野狗这样的下属食肉动物的种群动态很复杂,受到猎物密度和与顶级掠食者竞争的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查非洲野狗在赞比亚南卢旺加山谷生态系统中对不同猎物和竞争对手密度的人口反应.
- 确定竞争性释放的好处是否超过非洲野生狗猎物枯竭的成本.
主要方法:
- 利用长期监测数据开发一个贝叶斯综合种群模型 (IPM) 对非洲野生狗.
- IPM结合了康马克-乔利-塞伯生存模型,零膨胀的波桑模型用于生育率,以及状态空间模型用于人口规模估计.
- 分析了四个不同的地区的人口结构参数,记录了猎物和竞争对手密度的差异.
主要成果:
- 非洲野狗的生存率和繁殖率在猎物密度最低的地区是最低的,无论狮子是否存在.
- 猎物密度最高的地区的种群表现出最高的生存率和繁殖率.
- 人口增长率在猎物密度较低的地区显著负,在猎物密度较高的地区显著正.
结论:
- 猎物枯竭对非洲野狗种群的负面影响比竞争性释放的好处更为重要.
- 人类造成的猎物枯竭是非洲野生狗当地人口减少的主要驱动因素.
- 这些发现强调了猎物可用性在肉食动物种群动态中的关键作用,并表明类似的挑战可能会影响人类影响的生态系统中的其他物种.
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