评估复发疫苗对白喉传染的影响:数学建模和风险区绘制地图
Ilham Saiful Fauzi1, Nuning Nuraini2,3, Ade Maya Sari2
1Department of Accounting, Politeknik Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|February 5, 2024
概括
西爪的白喉病例正在增加,原因是大流行病的干扰. 将补充疫苗接种率提高到75.15%,可以防止疫情爆发,正如SIR模型和病例集群的空间分析所表明的那样.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行扰乱了医疗保健,导致全球 diphtheria病例增加.
- 印度尼西亚西爪是一个高风险地区,从2021年到2023年,白喉病例显著增加.
研究的目的:
- 分析西爪角病的日益增长趋势.
- 为了确定该地区的白喉病的基本繁殖数 (R0).
- 识别高风险地区,了解疾病传播模式.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个SIR模型,包含DPT和强剂疫苗接种数据.
- 使用SIR模型计算了基本复制数 (R0).
- 进行了地理引用的喉病例数据的空间分析,以确定热点和扩散模式.
主要成果:
- 计算的R0为1.17,表明喉炎疫情的可能性.
- 模拟结果表明,将补充疫苗接种率从64.84%提高到75.15%,可以控制不断增加的病例.
- 空间分析显示了西爪西部,中部和南部的热点,具有扩张-传染性扩散模式.
结论:
- 在西爪,白喉病构成重大风险,由大流行相关的医疗保健中断加剧.
- 针对性地增加补充疫苗接种率对于预防疫情至关重要.
- 了解地理分布和传播模式对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
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