基于土地使用特征绘制COVID-19的潜在感染风险:埃及两座城市商业活动的案例研究
Karim I Abdrabo1,2, Mahmoud Mabrouk3,2, Haoying Han3,4
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Heliyon
|February 5, 2024
概括
确定城市内的COVID-19热点对于公共卫生至关重要. 集中商业活动,而不仅仅是城市密度,显著增加传播风险,指导抗疫城市规划.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和公共卫生
- 流行病学风险评估 流行病学风险评估
- 传染病传播的空间分析.
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,人们需要了解超越一般城市密度的传播动态.
- 新菌株的出现需要精细的方法来识别高风险地区.
- 之前的控制措施强调了对特定活动的风险映射的必要性.
研究的目的:
- 根据商业活动的空间规划,定义城市内COVID-19风险热点.
- 评估商业活动特征与感染传播潜力之间的相关性.
- 为抗疫城市设计开发空间风险评估工具.
主要方法:
- 使用疾病控制和预防中心 (CDCP) 标准分析商业活动的空间和形态特征.
- 在风险评估中应用Kriging插值和物流回归 (LR).
- 整合谷歌移动数据,人口流动和热点识别和验证的兴趣点,使用皮尔森系数 (rxy).
主要成果:
- 集中和不相容的商业活动的市中心地区显示出显著的COVID-19风险峰值 (LR = 0.903,rxy = 0.78).
- 仅仅城市密度不足以缓解公共卫生风险.
- 活动的空间配置被证明是传输潜力的关键因素.
结论:
- 商业活动的空间规划是城市内COVID-19风险的关键决定因素.
- 建议在城市规划中采用以健康视角为基础的空间配置方法.
- 将基于活动的风险评估与城市密度数据相结合,有助于创建抗疫城市.
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