孟加拉国气候脆弱人口对环境变化的看法
1Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
概括
人们准确地感知到长期的温度变化,但高估了侵蚀事件. 了解这些观念对于有效的气候变化适应战略至关重要,即使在气候素养较低的人群中也是如此.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 社会科学研究 社会科学研究
背景情况:
- 有效的气候变化适应取决于了解公众对环境变化的看法.
- 以前的研究提供了关于感知和客观气候变化之间的对齐的不确定的发现.
- 对水灾和侵蚀等离散环境事件的感知缺乏系统的比较.
研究的目的:
- 将家庭对环境变化的看法与客观数据进行比较.
- 分析有关温度,降水和河岸侵蚀的感知准确度.
- 通过强调公众观念的作用,为气候变化适应政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自孟加拉国贾穆纳河沿线约1700个家庭的新型面板调查数据.
- 综合个人级别的卫星侵蚀数据与气候时间序列数据 (CRU TS).
- 将受访者对温度,降水和侵蚀的感知与客观测量进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 长期温度变化感知比降水变化感知更准确.
- 尽管气候知识较低,但全球气温的上升被偏远的人群感觉到.
- 河岸侵蚀被大大高估了,特别是那些直接受到影响的人.
结论:
- 感知,而不仅仅是客观数据,引导人类在适应过程中的行为.
- 准确了解感知到的环境变化对于政策制定至关重要.
- 气候适应战略必须纳入并解决公众对环境风险的看法.
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