使用死亡率和残疾患病率估计日本社区的预期健康状况
Rikuya Hosokawa1, Toshiyuki Ojima2, Tomoya Myojin3
1Department of Human Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
JMA journal
|February 5, 2024
概括
降低死亡率和残疾率显著增加了老年人的预期寿命 (LE). 这些因素对男性和女性的影响不同,需要针对性别的健康政策来提高预期寿命.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 预期寿命 (LE) 与死亡率和残疾相关,但减少这些因素对LE的影响尚未得到充分证实.
- 在LE,死亡率和残疾之间的关系中,特定于性别的差异仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种回归模型,利用死亡率和残疾患病率预测老年人 (≥65岁) 的LE.
- 评估LE,死亡率和残疾患病率之间的基于性别的关系.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自日本人口登记和长期保险记录的数据 (N=344).
- 采用多重线性回归分析,按性别分层,以检查关联.
主要成果:
- 根据年龄调整的死亡率和残疾患病率显著预测了两种性别的LE.
- 死亡率每年下降1%与男性LE增加1.54年,女性LE增加2.15年相关.
- 残疾患病率每年下降1%与男性的LE增加0.22年,女性的LE增加0.32年相关.
- 该模型显示出高预测准确度 (男性:R2=0.968,女性:R2=0.994).
结论:
- 死亡率和残疾患病率是旨在增加LE的健康促进政策的关键预后指标.
- 根据性别,LE,死亡率和残疾之间的不同强度的关联凸显了需要量身定制的政策规划.
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