在一个变暖的世界里,一个开放式的萨菲尔-辛普森风风尺度日益不足
Michael F Wehner1, James P Kossin2,3
1Applied Mathematics and Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720.
概括
全球变暖正在加剧热带气旋 (TC),导致更强的风. 一些TC现在正在达到萨菲尔-辛普森尺度上的假设类别6,预计在气候变暖的情况下会有更多的TC.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖增加了热能,增加了热带气旋 (TC) 的强度.
- 萨菲尔-辛普森尺度,广泛用于TC通信,是开放的超越5类.
- 风力损害潜力的指数增长没有反映在当前的极端TC的规模.
研究的目的:
- 分析最强烈的TC的风速峰值过去和未来的增加.
- 评估萨菲尔-辛普森尺度在传达极端风险方面的局限性.
- 为TC引入和评估一个假设的6类.
主要方法:
- 对萨菲尔-辛普森尺度的推断来定义一个假设的6类.
- 分析历史TC数据和气候模型预测.
- 对极端TCs的模拟和潜在峰值风速的检查.
主要成果:
- 最近强烈的TC已经达到假设的6级风速.
- 预计气候变暖将增加这种极端TC的频率.
- 当前的萨菲尔-辛普森级不充分说明了最强烈的风暴所带来的危险.
结论:
- 萨菲尔-辛普森尺度的局限性被气候变化放大.
- 6类是必要的,以准确地传达最强烈的TC的风险.
- 未来的变暖可能会导致更频繁和更强烈的TC超出目前的规模限制.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
Design Example: Calculating Safe Diameter for Wind-Exposed Disc
96
Assessing safety in wind-exposed installations is crucial to preventing potential failures. This example explores the calculation and design adjustments needed to mount a circular disc on a building facade, where wind forces are a primary concern. A 4-meter diameter disc was initially designed as an aesthetic feature facing winds at a velocity of 25 meters per second, with an air density of 1.25 kilograms per cubic meter. Given these conditions, the drag force on the disc was determined using...
96
Modeling and Similitude
267
Scaled modeling is a fundamental technique in engineering, enabling the study of large and complex systems by creating smaller, manageable replicas that recreate critical characteristics of the original. In hydrology and civil infrastructure, for example, scaled models of dams help analyze water flow, turbulence, and pressure. This method allows for accurate predictions of real-world behavior within a controlled environment, significantly reducing the cost and time involved in full-scale...
267
What is Weather?
18.2K
Overview
18.2K
What is Climate?
18.5K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.5K
Wind Turbine Machine Models
134
In the growing field of wind energy, incorporating wind turbine models into transient stability analysis is essential. Induction and synchronous machines are the primary models used, with induction machines being prevalent due to their simplicity and reliability.
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
134


