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评估森林枯竭和结构变化对巴基斯坦环境可持续性的影响:通过负载能力因子的透视
1School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 5, 2024
概括
环境退化正在加速,接近2°C的门. 这项研究探讨了森林枯竭,结构变化,经济增长和城市化如何影响巴基斯坦.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态经济学生态经济学
- 可持续发展研究 可持续发展研究
背景情况:
- 全球环境退化正在加速,物种灭绝和森林砍伐的增加.
- 这一趋势接近关键的2°C温度值,需要紧急关注.
- 之前的研究单独分析了森林砍伐和经济增长等因素,但没有分析它们与负载能力因子 (LCF) 的相互关系.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个理论框架,将森林枯竭,结构变化,经济增长和城市化与巴基斯坦的LCF相结合.
- 用LCF和CO2排放来比较这些因素对环境的影响.
- 为巴基斯坦提供可持续的减缓战略.
主要方法:
- 利用了1970年至2021年巴基斯坦的时间序列数据.
- 采用动态自回归分布式滞后 (DARDL) 技术进行分析.
- 对比了负载能力因子 (LCF) 和二氧化碳排放的结果.
主要成果:
- 森林枯竭的1%增加使得LCF减少了0.026%.
- 结构变化的1%增加将LCF提高0.084%.
- 经济增长的1%增长使得LCF下降了0.027%.
- 城市化增长1%增加了0.029%的LCF.
结论:
- 结构变化通过增加LCF,对环境可持续性产生积极影响.
- 森林枯竭,经济增长对LCF产生负面影响,而城市化则显示出积极的影响.
- 巴基斯坦政府应该优先考虑植树,并利用环境可持续性的结构性变化.
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