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东南亚湖泊表面水温对气候变暖的历史和预测反应
Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis1, Siwat Kongwarakom1, Liew Juneng2
1Department of Information and Communication Technologies, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4 Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand.
Environmental research
|February 5, 2024
概括
东南亚的湖面温度 (LSWT) 正在升温,作为气候变化的关键指标. 预测显示持续升温,在各种气候情景下,预计到2100年气候将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 湖面温度 (LSWT) 密切反映区域空气温度,并迅速响应气候变化.
- 在监测气候变化影响方面,LSWT是一个至关重要的指标,特别是在东南亚 (SEA) 等生态敏感地区.
研究的目的:
- 重建和分析大陆SEA的80多个主要湖泊的LSWT历史和未来趋势.
- 评估各种气候变化场景 (代表性度途径 - RCPs) 对LSWT的影响.
- 评估不同的预测模型对LSWT估计的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5和CHIRPS气候数据来训练和验证五个预测模型 (统计,机器学习,深度学习) 与MODIS衍生的LSWT (2000-2020).
- 应用了表现最好的模型 (XGBoost) 来预测历史 (1986-2020) 和未来 (2020-2100) 的LSWT,使用缩小规模的CORDEX-SEA气候数据和多个RCP场景.
- 分析了白天和夜晚的LSWT动态和长期趋势.
主要成果:
- 该XGBoost模型显示了高性能 (NSE 0.85,RMSE 1.14°C).
- 历史分析揭示了南亚湖泊的变暖趋势:白天LSWT的+0.18°C/十年,夜间LSWT的+0.13°C/十年.
- 未来的预测表明持续升温,到2100年,LSWT的平均升温从+0.38°C (RCP2.6) 到+2.29°C (RCP8.5) 之间.
结论:
- 对于了解气候变化对南亚地区淡水生态系统的影响,LSWT是一个至关重要的指标.
- 集成卫星LSWT和气候预测的数据驱动建模为区域LSWT动态提供了细微的见解.
- 迫切需要采取气候行动,以减轻东南亚湖泊预计的变暖.
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