为COVID-19设计一种新的微分顺序数学模型,包括封锁措施
Waleed Adel1,2, Hatıra Günerhan3,4, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar5,6
1Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35511, Egypt. waleedadel@mans.edu.eg.
Scientific reports
|February 5, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的分数模型来模拟COVID-19的传播,发现严格的隔离措施显著加快了病毒的稳定并减少了感染.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 分数微积分的计算.
背景情况:
- 冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 的持续传播需要有效建模控制策略.
- 了解病毒动态对于实施公共卫生干预措施至关重要,例如社会距离和口罩强制.
研究的目的:
- 设计和分析一种新的分数数学模型来模拟COVID-19传播动态.
- 调查各种控制措施对疫情稳定的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分隔式的分数模型 (易受感染-受感染-接受治疗-康复).
- 在分析溶液中应用拉普拉斯阿多米亚分解法 (LADM).
- 数字模拟和与意大利的真实数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 分数模型准确地模拟了COVID-19的传播,与意大利的流行病学数据有很好的一致性.
- 分析表明,实施严格的隔离措施和减少接触率会导致更快的流行病稳定.
- 没有隔离,稳定时间更长,累计感染者数量更高.
结论:
- 分数建模为理解和预测传染病动态提供了一个强大的框架.
- 公共卫生干预措施,特别是隔离,对于减轻COVID-19等流行病的影响和加快稳定性至关重要.
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