一个预测模型的研究协议,以评估基于人口的可避免住院风险:可避免住院人口风险预测工具 (AvHPoRT)
Laura C Rosella1,2,3,4, Mackenzie Hurst5,6, Meghan O'Neill5
1Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Health Sciences Building 6th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada. laura.rosella@utoronto.ca.
Diagnostic and prognostic research
|February 5, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了可避免住院人口风险工具 (AvHPoRT),以预测 ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) 的可避免住院情况. 该工具使用例行收集的健康调查数据来识别面临风险的人群,以便进行主动干预.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 可避免的住院病例表明初级保健的有效性,是卫生系统绩效的关键指标.
- 在人口层面预测可避免的住院治疗,使得对于门诊护理敏感疾病 (ACSCs) 的积极干预成为可能.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证可避免住院人口风险工具 (AvHPoRT).
- 通过使用人口健康调查数据,预测七个ACSC首次可避免住院的5年风险.
主要方法:
- 利用加拿大社区健康调查 (CCHS) 数据 (2000-2006年) 进行模型推导和验证.
- 将CCHS数据与394,600名个人出院摘要数据库联系起来,以追踪5年来住院的情况.
- 开发了使用韦布尔生存模型的特定性别算法,并通过交叉验证和时间验证进行验证.
主要成果:
- 该研究开发并验证了AvHPoRT工具,用于预测可避免的住院治疗.
- 使用Nagelkerke R2,校准图表和Harrell的对应统计数据来评估性能.
- 模型开发遵循个人预后或诊断 (TRIPOD) 陈述的多变量预测模型的透明报告.
结论:
- AvHPoRT工具提供了一种经过验证的方法,用于预测可以避免住院住院的人口水平风险.
- 该工具可以帮助卫生系统决策者实施有针对性的初级保健干预措施.
- 研究结果将通过科学会议和同行评审的出版物进行传播.
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