全球天然气贸易的未来演变
Brinda Yarlagadda1, Gokul Iyer1, Matthew Binsted1
1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA.
iScience
|February 6, 2024
概括
由于航运灵活,液化天然气 (LNG) 将主导全球天然气贸易. 到2050年,对液化天然气和管道基础设施的投资将有所不同,根据地区的贸易战略,将产生不同的影响.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化建模模型
- 全球贸易动态 全球贸易动态
背景情况:
- 长期的天然气发展对于能源转型至关重要.
- 现有的模型缺乏交易天然气基础设施的明确表示.
研究的目的:
- 在GCAM中明确建模管道和液化天然气 (LNG) 基础设施.
- 分析液化天然气在全球天然气贸易中的未来作用.
- 评估天然气贸易发展的投资需求和区域影响.
主要方法:
- 将交易管道和液化天然气基础设施纳入全球变化分析模型 (GCAM).
- 情景分析,预测投资和贸易模式到2050年.
- 基于贸易概况的区域影响的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 据预测,液化天然气 (LNG) 由于其航运灵活性,将主导全球天然气贸易.
- 到2050年,全球对液化天然气和管道出口基础设施的投资在不同情景中差异很大.
- 具有不同天然气贸易概况的地区 (例如,俄罗斯与美国/中东) 面临着不同的影响.
结论:
- 液化天然气基础设施是全球天然气贸易未来的关键.
- 能源系统转型和贸易政策影响基础设施投资和区域成果.
- 地缘政治变化和液化和航运的技术进步将重塑天然气市场.
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