将竞争性风险分析应用于原发性乳腺癌复发的情况
Silvia Mancini1, Annibale Biggeri2, Orietta Giuliani1
1Emilia-Romagna Cancer Registry, Romagna Unit, Romagna cancer institute, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) Dino Amadori, Meldola, Forlì (Italy).
Epidemiologia e prevenzione
|February 6, 2024
概括
竞争性风险分析对于准确估计乳腺癌复发风险至关重要. 忽视死亡或第二次原发性癌症等竞争性风险会导致结果分歧,在事件独立性不确定时,这种方法是可取的.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在时间到事件分析中,当可能存在多种事件类型时,竞争性风险会出现.
- 竞争风险是阻碍或改变感兴趣事件发生的概率的事件.
研究的目的:
- 提供对竞争风险分析的概述.
- 为了证明其在估计乳腺癌复发风险中的应用.
主要方法:
- 队列研究设计.
- 利用了早期乳腺癌患者 (2000-2013) 的基于人口的随机样本.
- 采用竞争风险方法,考虑死亡和第二次原发性乳腺癌,并与考克斯回归进行比较.
主要成果:
- 没有考虑竞争性风险导致了不同的危险和次要危险功能.
- 对局部区域性复发和远程转移的亚危险比率,危险比率和累积发病率函数的计算时间为10年.
- 证明了竞争性风险对复发估计的影响.
结论:
- 竞争性风险分析对于准确估计乳腺癌复发风险至关重要.
- 当终点的独立性受到质疑时,这种方法是可取的.
- 忽视竞争风险可能会严重扭曲研究结果.
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