主观信心作为响应可复制性的监测器
Asher Koriat1,2
1Institute of Information Processing and Decision Making, University of Haifa.
概括
对选择的信心监测其可靠性和重复的可能性,而不仅仅是其准确性. 这一发现适用于各种决策类型,影响我们对判断和预测的理解.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 认识论的认识论学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 信心通常被认为反映了响应的准确性.
- 关于认识论论证的哲学讨论促使人们重新评估信心的作用.
- 现有的模型表明,信心源于提示一致性.
研究的目的:
- 调查信心是否监控选择的准确性或可靠性.
- 探索信心和选择可复制性之间的关系.
- 测试内部一致性指数选择可靠性的假设.
主要方法:
- 进行了10项涉及不同领域二元决策的研究.
- 根据内部提示的一致性,评估对选择的信心.
- 在个体内和个体之间测量选择的可复制性.
主要成果:
- 对选择的信心显著预测了其可重复性.
- 这种效应在具有和没有真实值的域中观察到.
- 可复制性差异调解了信心与准确性的联系,即使信心是反诊断的.
结论:
- 自信主要作为选择可靠性的指标,而不是直接准确性的指标.
- 线索的内部一致性反映了选择重复的可能性.
- 发现对理解真理构造,预测和判断有影响.
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