应用地理空间技术和二进制物流回归模型来分析巴希尔达尔城市城市城市增长的驱动因素,埃塞俄比亚
Kenu Getu1, H Gangadhara Bhat2
1Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Debre Tabor University, P.O.Box 272, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|February 7, 2024
概括
巴希尔达尔的城市增长是由于邻近现有建筑区以及通往道路和国际机场的便利性. 这种二元物流回归模型准确地预测了未来的城市扩张模式.
科学领域:
- 城市和区域规划 城市和区域规划
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 了解城市增长驱动因素对于可持续发展和土地利用管理至关重要.
- 时空空间土地利用变化分析为城市扩张动态提供了洞察力.
- 埃塞俄比亚的巴希尔达尔市经历了快速的城市增长,需要进行详细的研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析推动埃塞俄比亚巴希尔达尔城市快速城市增长的因素.
- 量化近距离和物理因素对1984年至2019年城市扩张的影响.
- 为有效地利用土地管理和资源分配制定决策框架.
主要方法:
- 使用的土地使用数据,GIS数据,专家知识和现场观测.
- 使用IDRISI Selva中的LOGISTICREG模块使用二进制后勤回归模型 (BLRM).
- 纳入了九个因素:地形 (斜率,高度,角度) 和可访问性 (距离主道路,机场,CBD,建筑区,森林,水体的距离).
主要成果:
- 确定地形和可访问性是城市增长的关键驱动力.
- 城市增长概率地图显示,在现有建筑区,主要道路和国际机场周围的地区有显著扩张.
- 高相对操作特征 (ROC) 和百分比正确分类 (PCP) 值证实了模型的准确性 (ROC:0.85-0.93;PCP:96.72%-98.51%).
结论:
- 该研究成功地突出了城市增长及其决定因素在巴希尔达尔之间的关系.
- 开发的城市增长概率图是有效的,并准确地预测未来的扩张.
- 结果为研究区域的知情土地利用规划和资源管理提供了有价值的框架.
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