加纳的开放政策和金融发展:一种ARDL方法
Mubarik Salifu1,2, James Atta Peprah3, Joshua Sebu4
1Department of Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.
Heliyon
|February 7, 2024
概括
开放政策大大促进了加纳的金融发展,特别是短期的贸易开放,以及长期的贸易和金融开放. 政策应鼓励贸易和资本流动,以实现持续增长.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
背景情况:
- 金融发展对于经济增长至关重要.
- 理论上,包括贸易和金融在内的开放政策会影响金融发展.
- 加纳的金融部门发展一直是政策关注的主题.
研究的目的:
- 调查加纳的开放政策 (贸易和金融) 与金融发展之间的经验关系.
- 确定这些政策的短期和长期影响.
- 在加纳背景下测试麦金农-索假设的有效性.
主要方法:
- 从世界银行的世界发展指标中利用了加纳1960-2020年年度时间序列数据.
- 采用自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 边界测试方法进行协同集成分析.
- 应用了马尔科夫切换模型作为稳定性检查,以考虑结构断裂和政权转移.
主要成果:
- 开放性政策对加纳的金融发展产生了实质性的积极影响,支持麦金农-索假设.
- 长期来看,金融和贸易的开放性都会对金融发展产生积极的影响.
- 从短期来看,只有贸易的开放性才能在很大程度上决定金融发展. 在不那么波动的时期,外国投资的影响是可以忽略不计的.
结论:
- 政策建议包括加强贸易协定和自由化资本账户,以促进长期金融发展.
- 减少对资本流动的限制可以促进资金流入和竞争,提高金融部门的效率.
- 政策制定者必须仔细管理开放政策的潜在短期不利影响.
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