文化演变的特征时间尺度
Tobias Wand1,2, Daniel Hoyer3,4
1Institut für Theoretische Physik, Fachbereich 11 Physik, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster/University of Münster, Münster 48149, Germany.
PNAS nexus
|February 7, 2024
概括
社会复杂性在大约2500年来在不同地区以同样的方式发展. 这个漫长的过程涉及复杂的社会构成进化的内部发展和外部影响.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 历史 历史 历史 历史 历史
- 人类学是人类学.
背景情况:
- 研究人员长期研究复杂的社会构成的演变.
- 了解社会复杂性的共同点和差异至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定社会复杂性的演变是否存在一个特征性的时间进程.
- 分析不同地理区域内社会复杂性的内生增长.
主要方法:
- 利用了23个地理区域的Seshat:全球历史数据库的数据.
- 应用后勤回归建模对重叠的时间序列数据.
- 雇员启动,以确定社会复杂度大幅增长的时期.
主要成果:
- 一个物流回归模型证明了令人信服的样本外预测.
- 在社会复杂性的广泛增长的一个特征时期被确定为大约2500年.
- 对内源生长的分析产生了类似的逻辑回归曲线.
结论:
- 不同的地理区域在社会复杂性的演变中表现出类似的轨迹.
- 社会复杂性的演变是一个漫长的过程.
- 随着时间的推移,内部发展和外部影响都会塑造社会复杂性.
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