计算的比较:制造业社会因果判断通过暗示不同的反事实结果
Jamie Amemiya1, Gail D Heyman2, Caren M Walker2
1Department of Psychology, Occidental College.
Cognitive science
|February 7, 2024
概括
人们可以不同意政策的影响,专注于不同的"如果"情景. 这项研究表明,比较案例如何塑造因果判断,可能增加信念两极分化.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
背景情况:
- 关于社会问题的因果判断,如公共卫生政策的有效性,经常受到质疑.
- 意见分歧可能源于对反事实结果 (否则会发生什么) 的不同解释.
研究的目的:
- 调查比较案例如何影响对社会问题的因果判断.
- 检查隐含的反事实在塑造信仰和促进两极分化中的作用.
主要方法:
- 两项预先注册的研究 (N=480) 涉及参与者对公共政策进行推理,随后新型病毒病例下降.
- 研究1操纵了比较案例,以影响反事实判断.
- 第二项研究评估了参与者的意识和使用比较案例的说服力.
主要成果:
- 强调特定的比较案例显著改变了参与者对政策影响的因果判断.
- 参与者认可并战略性地使用比较案例来支持他们对政策的立场.
- 这些发现在美国多样化的成年人样本中是一致的.
结论:
- 隐含的反事实,通过比较案例形成,是制造因果判断的强有力的机制.
- 这种认知机制可以故意用来影响他人的信仰.
- 了解隐含的反事实对于解决社会辩论中的信仰两极分化至关重要.
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