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俄罗斯-乌克兰战争期间的汇率不稳定:来自V4国家的证据
Florin Aliu1, Jiří Kučera1, Jakub Horák1
1School of Expertness and Valuation, Institute of Technology and Business, České Budějovice, Czech Republic.
Heliyon
|February 8, 2024
概括
由于以欧元计价的天然气合约,俄罗斯卢布在俄乌战争期间没有影响捷克,波兰或匈牙利的货币. 然而,捷克皇冠对波兰兹洛提和匈牙利福林特产生了重大影响.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 地缘政治地缘政治地缘政治
背景情况:
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰战争造成了重大的地缘政治和经济不确定性.
- 维塞格勒 (V4) 国家 (捷克共和国,匈牙利,波兰) 与欧元区有着密切的经济联系.
- 能源依赖和地缘政治接近是区域经济稳定的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查俄罗斯卢布对捷克克朗,波兰兹洛提和匈牙利福林特的影响.
- 分析俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突期间使用欧元作为基准单位的汇率平价.
- 评估地缘政治事件对V4货币的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2022年2月1日到2023年2月1日的时间序列分析.
- 采用了VAR冲动响应函数,方差分解,矢量错误校正模型和格兰杰因果关系测试.
- 使用的每日频率汇率数据.
主要成果:
- 尽管俄罗斯要求以卢布支付,但捷克克朗,波兰兹洛提和匈牙利福林特仍然不受影响.
- 与德国承包商签订的以欧元计价的天然气合约使V4货币免受卢布波动的影响.
- 在此期间,捷克克朗对波兰兹洛提和匈牙利福林特有显著的影响.
结论:
- 货币对的不稳定性是由经济和地缘政治因素推动的.
- 对专制国家的能源依赖对国家安全和货币稳定构成风险.
- 地理接近冲突地区可能会对国家货币价值产生重大影响.
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