电力需求分析和预测:加达经济特区的情况
Meskerem Tadesse Gebre1, Junseok Hwang2, Getachew Biru3
1Department of Technology and Innovation Management, Adama Science and Technology University (ASTU), Adama, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|February 8, 2024
概括
埃塞俄比亚 埃塞俄比亚 埃塞俄比亚
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
- 经济预测 经济预测
背景情况:
- 埃塞俄比亚因经济增长而面临不断增长的电力需求.
- 可持续能源对于新的工业和经济区至关重要.
- 准确的预测对于基础设施规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2025年到2040年,预测埃塞俄比亚新经济区的电力需求.
- 在基线,积极和保守的发展场景下分析需求.
- 为可持续能源战略和基础设施发展提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了自下而上的预测方法.
- 采用了远程能源替代方案规划 (LEAP) 系统软件.
- 分析了住宅,工业和一般商业部门的需求.
主要成果:
- 预计到2040年,需求增长率为52.2% (基线),68% (积极) 和30.3% (保守).
- 到2040年,国家电网需求可能会增加93.5% (参考) 到175.9% (积极).
- 现场离网发电可以满足25%的需求,减少对国家电网的依赖.
结论:
- 埃塞俄比亚新经济区的电力需求预计将大幅增加.
- 需要在发电和配电方面进行大量投资.
- 集成现场离网解决方案对于可持续的能源供应至关重要.
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