考虑到未观察到的人口动态和老龄化错误在近亲标记-重新捕获评估
John D Swenson1, Elizabeth N Brooks2, Dovi Kacev3
1Department of Environmental Conservation The University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts USA.
Ecology and evolution
|February 8, 2024
概括
近亲标记回收 (CKMR) 为数据有限的物种提供了可靠的种群丰度估计. 这项研究改进了CKMR模型的准确性,以不同种群动态和采样,帮助保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 遗传学 是一个遗传学.
背景情况:
- 估计种群丰度对于管理受威胁和被剥削物种至关重要.
- 近亲标记回收 (CKMR) 是一种有前途的基于遗传学的方法,用于监测数据有限的种群.
- 在现实的条件下对CKMR模型进行有限的灵敏性测试阻碍了它们的应用.
研究的目的:
- 检查未建模的人口动态和老龄化不确定性如何影响CKMR参数估计.
- 开发适应的CKMR模型,以纠正模型错误规范偏差.
- 评估CKMR的有效性,用于监测高度流动的人群,使用仅为年轻人采样.
主要方法:
- 基于个体的模拟来测试CKMR模型的灵敏度.
- 开发和应用适应的CKMR模型,考虑人口趋势和非年度繁殖.
- 分析了20年来从幼鱼 (Negaprion brevirostris) 的遗传数据.
主要成果:
- 对于每年繁殖的稳定种群,简单的CKMR模型是准确的.
- 复杂的CKMR模型对于具有趋势或非年度繁殖的种群是必要的.
- CKMR可靠地估计了成年人数的丰富性,即使仅采用青少年样本和最小的老化误差.
结论:
- CKMR模型需要根据人口动态和采样策略进行仔细的构建.
- 经过调整的CKMR模型提高了准确性,并且可以使用仅青少年样本进行监测.
- 这项研究为在数据有限的物种的保护和库存评估中实施CKMR提供了实际建议.
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