极端降水和急性胃肠道疾病之间的关系在安大略省多伦多,2012-2022年
Crystal J Ethan1, Johanna Sanchez1, Lauren Grant2
1School of Occupational and Public Health, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Epidemiology and infection
|February 8, 2024
概括
多伦多的极端降水增加了胃肠道疾病的风险,特别是在春天. 这凸显了暴雨季节性对公共卫生和水污染的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 加拿大极端降水事件正在增加,对水质构成风险.
- 污染的水源可能导致肠道病原体暴露和急性胃肠道疾病.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查极端降水和急诊室 (ED) 访问急性胃肠道疾病之间的联系在多伦多.
- 探索这种关系中的季节性变化.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型,用于ED访问次数 (2012-2022年) 的近波松分布.
- 模拟极端降水 (≥95百分位数) 与21天的延迟.
- 进行季节性分析以确定时间模式.
主要成果:
- 总的来说,极端降水与胃肠道疾病的ED访问没有显著的关系.
- 春季发现了一个显著的关联,14天后的1.04的峰值相对风险 (RR).
- 在21天的春季累积效应显示,风险显著增加 (RR = 1.94).
结论:
- 极端降水对多伦多的胃肠道健康结果有明显的季节性影响.
- 通过饮用水或环境途径暴露于肠道病原体的水平在不同季节发生变化.
- 公共卫生战略可能需要考虑对极端降水事件的季节性脆弱性.
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