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在CMIP6模拟和印度上空的MODIS检索之间,气溶光学深度的时空对应

Bharath Jaisankar^1,2, Venkata Lakshmi Kumar Tumuluru^3,4,5, Naga Rajesh Anandan^1,2

¹Centre for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Studies, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur, Tamil Nadu, India.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|February 8, 2024

概括

与卫星数据相比,新的气候模型 (CMIP6) 在模拟印度上的气溶光学深度 (AOD) 中显示出显著的偏差. 未来的预测表明,由人为气溶驱动的AOD趋势有所变化.

科学领域:

大气科学大气科学
气候建模气候模型
遥感遥感遥感遥感

背景情况:

气溶光学深度 (AOD) 是理解地球辐射平衡和气候的关键参数.
在模拟AOD时评估气候模型的准确性对于可靠的气候变化预测至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 在模拟印度空中AOD时的通用流通模型 (GCMs) 的性能.
为了将CMIP6 AOD模拟与前一代模型 (CMIP5) 和中等分辨率成像光谱辐射仪 (MODIS) 卫星数据进行比较.
调查到2050年在不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSPs) 下,印度空中气溶的未来演变.

主要方法:

利用Terra卫星上的中等分辨率成像光谱辐射仪 (MODIS) 在550 nm的气溶光学深度 (AOD) 数据上.
从CMIP6和CMIP5一般循环模型 (GCMs) 对印度陆地进行评估的AOD模拟.
分析了包括SSP126,SSP370和SSP585.5在内的各种共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 的未来AOD趋势.

主要成果:

无论是CMIP5和CMIP6模型,都普遍低估了对印度的平均年度AOD.
与MODIS (2001-2014) 相比,CMIP6多模型平均值 (MMM) 在印度-河平原显示低估 (40-60%),半岛和印度中部地区高估 (60-80%).
未来的模拟 (到2050年) 显示在SSP370下增加AOD趋势,在SSP126和SSP585下下降趋势,主要是由人为气溶驱动的.

结论:

在印度的CMIP6 AOD模拟中存在重大偏差,需要对排放数据集进行进一步调查.
印度未来的气溶演变受到人为排放的强烈影响,取决于社会经济道路的不同趋势.
提高排放清单的准确性对于提高气候模型对气溶影响预测的可靠性至关重要.

关键词:

气溶的光学深度在CMIP6中,CMIP6是CMIP6.印度地区印度地区莫迪斯 (MODIS) 是一种模式.共享的社会经济道路.

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