景观生态安全的动态模拟和合协调程度的分析:博尔的一个案例研究
Lei Yao1, Abudureheman Halike1,2,3, Kaixuan Yao1
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.
PloS one
|February 8, 2024
概括
干旱绿洲城市的生态安全随着生产和居住土地的增加而得到改善,景观生态风险下降. 生态经济发展场景显示了可持续城市增长的最佳合协调.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市生态城市生态学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 绿洲城市在干旱地区的生态安全很容易受到景观变化和人与环境的相互作用的影响.
- 城市景观的生态安全对于区域经济和环境发展的协调至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析过去和未来的景观生态安全和合协调在中国博尔.
- 评估1990-2020年间的土地使用变化,并根据2030年各种情景对其进行预测.
主要方法:
- 利用了1990年,2000年,2010年和2020年的土地使用数据.
- 采用了补丁生成土地使用模拟 (PLUS) 模型来模拟2030年未来的土地使用场景 (NLD,ECD,ELD,EED).
- 从生产-生活-生态土地 (PLEL) 的角度分析了变化.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2020年,博勒以生态土地为主,但生产和生活用地显著增加.
- 景观生态风险下降,表明生态安全向良性状态的改善.
- 高合协调区减少,而基本和中等协调区增加.
- 在2030年EED情景下,土地使用变化最小,景观生态风险最低但高于2020年,并将情景之间的合协调进行最佳.
结论:
- 土地使用模式对景观生态安全及其合协调有重大影响.
- 优化土地利用模式对于加强城市生态安全和促进干旱地区可持续的高质量发展至关重要.
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