八个人口最多的国家的城市化路线的动态非线性CO2排放效应
Xiaobing Xu1, Linzhao Zeng2, Shen Li3
1Minsheng Bank Co., Ltd. Lanzhou Branch, Lanzhou, China.
PloS one
|February 8, 2024
概括
城市化显著影响二氧化碳排放,小城市和总城市化最初增加了排放,然后减少了它们,支持一个反转的U形EKC. 大城市表现出一个U形的关系.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 城市研究 城市研究
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 城市化是环境变化的关键驱动力,特别是二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放.
- 了解城市化模式与二氧化碳排放之间的复杂,非线性关系对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用动态STIRPAT模型,研究城市化路线对二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的非线性影响.
- 检查环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 假设对不同城市化尺度的有效性.
主要方法:
- 动态STIRPAT模型应用于八个人口密集的国家 (1975-2020) 的面板数据.
- 使用动态显示无关回归 (DSUR) 和完全修改的普通最小平方 (FMOLS) 进行回归分析.
- 使用AMG估计器进行国家一级分析和杜米特雷斯库和胡林因果关系测试.
主要成果:
- 总城市化和小城市的百分比最初会增加二氧化碳排放,但它们的平方值显示下降,支持一个反转的U形EKC.
- 大城市的百分比具有负面影响,而其平方项具有积极影响,验证U形EKC.
- 能源强度,GDP,工业增长和运输基础设施对二氧化碳排放产生积极影响. 二氧化碳排放与平方总城市化,大城市百分比和能源强度之间存在双向因果关系.
结论:
- 城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响是非线性和规模依赖的,支持EKC假设.
- 促进可再生能源和绿色技术的政策对于减轻城市二氧化碳排放至关重要.
- 这些发现支持关于城市化对环境的长期影响的生态现代化理论.
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