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2000-19年期间与寒冷时期相关的全球,区域和国家死亡负担:三阶段建模研究
Yuan Gao1, Wenzhong Huang1, Qi Zhao2
1Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|February 8, 2024
概括
寒冷导致全球每年超过20万人死亡,欧洲和温带气候地区的负担更高. 迫切需要公共卫生战略来缓解寒冷时期的死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 寒冷时期与死亡率的增加有关,但它们的全球影响仍然不太清楚.
- 在公共卫生规划中,量化全球感冒病死亡人数负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计与寒冷时期相关的全球死亡负担.
- 分析寒冷时期死亡率的地理差异.
- 评估随着时间的推移,寒冷时期死亡率的趋势.
主要方法:
- 一个三阶段的元分析方法,使用来自59个国家的1960个地点 (2000-2019) 的时间序列数据.
- 特定位置的死亡率关联使用准波桑回归与分布式滞后非线性模型进行建模.
- 全球死亡率预测是使用包含七个预测因素的多变量元回归模型生成的.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,寒冷时期每年平均有205,932例过度死亡 (每1000例死亡3.81例过度死亡).
- 过度死亡率和率在欧洲和温带气候地区最高,在非洲最低.
- 与2000-2003年相比,在2016-2019年期间观察到过度死亡率和比率略有增加.
结论:
- 寒冷时期带来了相当大的全球死亡负担,并且存在很大的地理差异.
- 尽管感冒发作频率可能有所下降,但它们对公众健康的威胁仍然存在.
- 地方和区域措施对于保护人口免受与寒冷相关的死亡率至关重要.
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