气候变化下的季节性死亡率:一项多国预测研究
Lina Madaniyazi1, Ben Armstrong2, Aurelio Tobias3
1School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|February 8, 2024
概括
气候变化将显著改变季节性死亡模式,在温暖的季节增加死亡,在寒冷的季节减少死亡. 医疗保健系统必须为不断变化的需求做好准备,尤其是在干旱,温带和大陆地区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与公共卫生
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 对死亡率模式的分析.
背景情况:
- 气候变化直接影响与温度相关的过度死亡.
- 由于全球变暖,死亡率的季节性变化预计将发生变化.
- 了解这些转变对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估全球气候区的季节性死亡率的未来变化.
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测死亡率模式 (SSP1-2.6至SSP5-8.5).
- 量化对死亡率的影响季节性形状,时间和负担.
主要方法:
- 利用来自多国多城市 (MCC) 协作研究网络的每日温度和死亡率数据 (1969-2020).
- 在四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景下,采用模型研究来预测2000年至2099年的死亡率.
- 分析了按形状,高峰/低谷时间和高峰/低谷比率的季节性死亡率变化.
主要成果:
- 在所有SSP情景下,干旱,温带和大陆地区的温暖季节死亡率预计增加,寒冷季节死亡率下降.
- 高排放场景 (SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 显示出更明显的变化,可能会将死亡率峰值转移到更温暖的季节.
- 到20世纪90年代,在SSP5-8.5下,峰值-低谷比率增加了 (0.96-1.11) ,季节性负担的归因部分发生了变化 (0.002%-0.06%).
结论:
- 预计气候变暖将大大改变死亡季节性.
- 卫生系统需要为温暖季节的需求增加和寒冷季节的持续高需求做好准备.
- 这些变化对干旱,温带和大陆气候地区尤为重要.
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