促进健康人口作为流行病准备战略:墨西哥的一项模拟研究
Rob Johnson1, Martha Carnalla2, Ana Basto-Abreu2
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, UK.
Lancet regional health. Americas
|February 9, 2024
概括
减少墨西哥的肥胖症可能会显著减少COVID-19的死亡. 早些时候的公共卫生干预措施,如食品标签和对不健康食品征税的增加,显示出对流行病准备的承诺.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 墨西哥的高肥胖率显著影响了COVID-19流行病的结果.
- 墨西哥面临着严重的COVID-19负担,由潜在的人口健康问题加剧.
- 从大流行前的肥胖干预措施中减少COVID-19死亡的潜力仍然没有量化.
研究的目的:
- 通过解决墨西哥的肥胖问题来量化COVID-19死亡的潜在减少.
- 模拟涉及较低人群体重指数 (BMI) 的假设场景的影响.
- 评估特定公共卫生干预措施在缓解COVID-19死亡率方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用了利用全国数据的动态流行病模型.
- 该研究比较了实际的COVID-19死亡与模拟的结果在各种BMI场景下.
- 模拟的干预措施包括历史的BMI变化,包装前的警告标签和对不健康食品的增加税收.
主要成果:
- 肥胖与20-64岁成年人中52.5%的COVID-19死亡和老年人中23.8%的死亡有关.
- 维持墨西哥2000年BMI分布可能会使COVID-19死亡人数减少20.6%.
- 早些时候 (2018年) 的食品标签可以避免6.2%的死亡;加倍的不健康食品税可以减少4.1%的死亡.
结论:
- 解决人口层面的肥胖和非传染性慢性疾病对于疫情防控至关重要.
- 针对潜在健康状况的系统性公共卫生干预措施可以大大降低与流行病相关的死亡率.
- 将慢性疾病管理纳入流行病规划是对未来健康危机的重要策略.
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