逐步取消两个孩子政策对中国人口变化的影响
Yidie Lin1, Baiyang Zhang1, Meijing Hu1
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16 People's South Road, Chengdu 610041, China.
Health policy and planning
|February 9, 2024
概括
中国的两个孩子政策最初增加了出生率和人口增长. 然而,这些影响是短暂的,这表明单靠政策可能无法确保低生育率国家的长期人口增长.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 低生育率给工业化国家带来了挑战.
- 中国实施了双子政策,以抵消出生率下降的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国二胎政策对出生率和自然人口增长的影响.
- 评估放宽出生限制的短期和长期影响.
主要方法:
- 准实验性设计利用来自124个地区的数据 (2011-2020年).
- 采用合成控制方法和受控中断时间序列分析.
- 利用1990-2010年的数据,为中国建立了合成控制.
主要成果:
- 在政策实施后,出生率 (1.16 / 1000) 和自然人口增长 (1.02 / 1000) 略有增加.
- 与对照组相比,在出生率和自然增长的前后趋势中发现了统计学上显著的年度减少.
- 对出生率和人口增长的积极影响是短期的.
结论:
- 取消出生限制对出生率和人口增长产生了暂时的积极影响.
- 仅仅是两个孩子的政策可能无法为长期的人口增长提供可持续的解决方案.
- 为了应对持续低生育率,可能需要进一步的政策干预.
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