在决定性的基恩模型中,用于退出债务诱导螺旋的反动态控制
Ivan Perez Avellaneda1, Francisco Rosales2, Luis A Duffaut Espinosa1
1Department of Electrical and Biomedical Engineering, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America.
PloS one
|February 9, 2024
概括
本研究提出了一种方法,通过政策干预来打破经济债务螺旋. 通过修改基恩经济模式,政策制定者可以引导经济走向稳定,避免金融危机.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 控制理论 控制理论
背景情况:
- 基恩模型模拟经济作为具有私人债务,工资份额和就业率相互作用的动态系统.
- 基恩模型中的某些条件可以触发债务螺旋,反映现实世界的金融危机.
研究的目的:
- 制定政策干预策略,以打破基恩经济模式中的债务螺旋.
- 将基恩模型表达为可控制的亲缘非线性系统.
主要方法:
- 代表基恩模型作为一个亲属非线性系统.
- 确定模拟金融危机的关键初始条件.
- 在系统的矢量场内找到一个稳定的平衡点.
- 设计一个控制路径,使用一步前的最佳控制.
主要成果:
- 通过政策干预展示了一种修改基恩模型的方法.
- 成功模拟控制场景,以引导系统达到理想的平衡.
- 为管理经济衰退和债务螺旋提供了一个框架.
结论:
- 提出的方法提供了一个可行的经济稳定战略.
- 政策干预可以有效地减轻基恩系统模拟的金融危机的影响.
- 这项研究有助于理解和管理复杂的经济动态.
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