对可解释组合学习和后勤回归的比较研究,用于预测急诊室医院内死亡率
Zahra Rahmatinejad1, Toktam Dehghani1,2, Benyamin Hoseini3
1Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Scientific reports
|February 9, 2024
概括
组合学习 (EL) 模型和后勤回归 (LR) 在预测急诊室 (ED) 住院死亡率方面表现相似. 无论是EL还是LR都可作为有价值的查工具,用于识别有风险的患者.
科学领域:
- 紧急医疗 紧急医疗
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 临床信息学 临床信息学
背景情况:
- 紧急部门 (ED) 过度拥挤需要有效的风险分层工具.
- 现有的逻辑回归 (LR) 模型对患者严重性评估有局限性.
- 预测模型对于高风险ED患者的早期干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将集合学习 (EL) 模型的预测性能与在ED的住院死亡率的逻辑回归 (LR) 进行比较.
- 评估各种EL算法,包括包装,AdaBoost,随机森林 (RF),堆叠和极端梯度增强 (XGB).
- 用AUROC,AUCPR,精度,灵敏度,准确度,F1分数和MCC等指标来评估模型性能.
主要方法:
- 伊玛目雷扎医院ED (2016年3月 - 2017年3月) 的一个横截面研究.
- 包括患有紧急严重程度指数水平为1-3的成年患者.
- 开发和比较LR和多个EL模型 (包装,AdaBoost,RF,堆叠,XGB) 使用80%的培训和20%的验证数据的十倍交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 集体学习模型,特别是包装,显示高的AUROC (0.839) 和AUCPR (0.64),与LR (AUROC 0.826,AUCPR 0.61) 相比.
- XGB模型实现了最高的精度 (0.83),灵敏度 (0.831),准确度 (0.842),F1得分 (0.833) 和MCC (0.48) 的结果.
- 随机森林 (RF) 在不平衡的数据集上显示了最低的Brier分数 (0.128);然而,所有模型都高估了死亡率,并没有足够的校准.
结论:
- 集体学习模型对于预测ED在医院死亡率的逻辑回归并不绝对优越.
- 无论是EL模型还是LR模型,都可以有效地作为查工具来识别有死亡风险的患者.
- 可能需要进一步的研究来改进模型校准和减少死亡率高估.
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