热浪对印度全因死亡率的影响:一项综合多城市研究
Jeroen de Bont1, Amruta Nori-Sarma2, Massimo Stafoggia3
1Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Environment international
|February 10, 2024
概括
热浪在印度显著增加了每日死亡率,更长,更强烈的热浪会带来更大的风险. 政策制定者必须考虑各种热浪定义,以便有效的公共卫生规划.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球范围内增加热浪的频率和强度.
- 热浪对公众健康构成重大威胁,特别是在印度等人口密集地区.
- 对印度热浪对死亡率的影响缺乏全面的研究.
研究的目的:
- 评估印度热浪与全因死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化印度因热浪造成的死亡率.
- 分析热浪持续时间和强度对死亡风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自印度十个城市 (2008-2019) 的全因死亡数据.
- 定义极端热浪是连续两天超过97年百分点温度的极端热浪.
- 采用了通用增量波桑回归模型和元分析来估计城市特定的关联.
主要成果:
- 超过第97个百分点的2天热浪与每日死亡率增加14.7%有关.
- 观察到更强的关联与更高的热浪强度和更长的持续时间.
- 估计每年有1116人死亡 (95%CI,8611361) 归因于印度的热浪.
结论:
- 热浪显然增加了印度每日死亡风险.
- 虽然更长,更强烈的热浪会增加死亡风险,但不那么严重的定义可能表明整体死亡负担更高.
- 整合各种热浪定义及其相关负担对于公共卫生政策和规划至关重要.
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