极端降雨,农民脆弱性和劳动力流动性-来自中国农村的证据
Heer Wang1, Bo Chen2, Xuhang Shen1
1School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, PR China.
The Science of the total environment
|February 10, 2024
概括
干旱和暴雨等极端降雨冲击会降低中国农民的作物产量和收入. 较贫穷的家庭受到的影响更大,导致经济适应的临时移民.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 农村社会学 农村社会学
背景情况:
- 极端天气事件越来越威胁全球农业,粮食安全和经济稳定.
- 了解农民适应战略对于制定有效的气候弹性政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析极端降雨冲击对中国农村家庭的影响.
- 调查农民适应性劳动力重新分配策略,以应对这些冲击.
主要方法:
- 利用空间降水指数 (SPI) 来评估降雨模式.
- 应用固定效应方法对来自中国全国农村固定点调查 (2006-2015) 的面板数据.
主要成果:
- 干旱和暴雨的冲击都大大降低了农业产量和家庭收入.
- 农民通过暂时将劳动力重新分配到非农业部门或迁移到城市地区来适应.
- 较不富裕的家庭经历了更大的负面影响,导致更高的移民率.
结论:
- 中国农村家庭战略性地调整劳动力决策,以减轻极端降雨冲击.
- 跨部门和跨区域的劳动力流动是关键的适应机制.
- 调查结果为脆弱农业社区的气候适应性政策提供了信息.
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