一个简单的临床风险评分 (ABCDMP) 用于预测AECOPD和心血管疾病患者的死亡率
Jiarui Zhang1, Qun Yi1,2, Chen Zhou3
1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Guo-xue-xiang 37#, Wuhou District, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan Province, China.
一个新的ABCDMP风险评分准确预测慢性阻塞性肺病 (AECOPD) 和心血管疾病 (CVD) 急性恶化患者的死亡率. 这一得分优于现有的模型和帮助患者分层,以获得更好的管理.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 临床风险预测预测
背景情况:
- 在患有AECOPD和心血管疾病的住院患者中患病率和死亡率高.
- 缺乏特定风险评分来预测这一群体的死亡率.
- 需要一种工具来评估AECOPD和心血管疾病患者的预后.
研究的目的:
- 导出和验证一个简单的临床风险评分,用于预测AECOPD和心血管疾病患者的死亡率.
- 为了确定独立的预后风险因素.
- 将新得分与现有风险模型进行比较.
主要方法:
- 前性,非干预性,多中心队列研究.
- 多变量逻辑回归用于风险因素识别.
- 对ABCDMP风险评分的推导和验证.
- 与BAP-65,CURB-65,DECAF和NIVO分数进行比较.
主要成果:
- 该ABCDMP得分包括年龄,BUN,整合,透气血压,精神状态和脉.
- 良好的区分 (导出时AUC为0.847,验证时为0.811) 和校准.
- 与现有得分相比,医院内死亡率的预测性明显更好 (P < 0.001).
- 适度的预测性表现为3年死亡率.
结论:
- 该ABCDMP风险评分有效预测AECOPD和心血管疾病患者的死亡率.
- 该分数可以指导临床研究和基于风险的治疗策略.
- 方便患者分层进行量身定制的管理.
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