大气花粉度和慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 患者在北京的访问:使用通用添加模型进行时间序列分析
Aizhu Liu1, Weixuan Sheng2, Xianshi Tang3
1Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Beijing, 100038, China.
Scientific reports
|February 11, 2024
概括
北京的高花粉水平与慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 患者的住院次数增加有关. 这项研究揭示了花粉对COPD恶化的显著积极关联和双模式滞后效应.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 恶化可能是由环境因素引发的.
- 花粉是空气中常见的过敏原,可能会影响呼吸系统状况.
研究的目的:
- 调查COPD患者每日住院访问与北京环境花粉度之间的相关性.
- 分析花粉暴露对COPD患者访问的滞后效应.
主要方法:
- 时间序列分析使用通用添加模型来评估北京每日COPD访问和花粉计数 (2019年4月至9月).
- 对气象因素,时间趋势,周日和假日影响进行统计分析.
- 使用R软件使用斯皮尔曼相关性和滞后效应建模.
主要成果:
- 观察到花粉度与COPD患者访问次数之间存在正相关性.
- 确定了双模式滞后效应:短期的特定累积效应在0日达到顶峰 (持续4天),而长期的增量累积效应在17日达到顶峰 (持续18天).
结论:
- 花粉度是与北京COPD医院访问增加相关的重要因素.
- 这些发现强调了花粉暴露对COPD恶化的直接和延迟影响,表明需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
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