对室内工作场所人类热舒适度的气候预测
Markus Sulzer1, Andreas Christen1
1Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg, Germany.
概括
到2070-2099年,室内热应激将显著增加,影响工作场所的频率比户外空间更高. 这种室内热量的增加在各种气候场景中被预测,突出了适应策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 建筑物理 建筑物理
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候模型主要关注室外气象条件,忽视室内热量对人类健康和生产力的重大影响.
- 大多数人花费大量的时间在室内,使室内热舒适是职业环境的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 根据区域气候模型的输出,开发和应用一种新的方法来预测室内空气温度和热舒适度.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下,量化各种工作场所室内热应激预计的增加.
主要方法:
- 利用来自上莱河谷90个工作场所的室内传感器数据来训练人工神经网络 (ANN).
- 整合了22个区域气候预测,以模拟2070-2099年工作场所特定的室内气候预测.
- 将未来预测与历史数据 (1970-1999年) 进行比较,使用ERA5-Land再分析数据作为ANN的输入.
主要成果:
- 室内热应激预计将在几乎所有调查工作场所的强度,频率和持续时间上升.
- 预计室内空气温度的增加 (平均+0.8到+2.5 K) 低于室外的增加 (+1.6到+5.1 K).
- 从历史上看,室内热应激比室外热应激更频繁,预计在不同的代表度路径 (RCP) 下将显著增加 (平均+379至+1209小时).
结论:
- 室内环境极易受到气候变化的影响,预计热应激的显著增加.
- 建筑特征,工作场所类型和排放场景 (RCP) 影响室内热应激的程度.
- 这些发现强调,迫切需要采取适应措施,以减轻工作场所室内热量暴露.
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