未来气候变化对布基纳法索草原覆盖面的潜在影响
Benewindé Jean-Bosco Zoungrana1, Blaise Ouedraogo2, Isidore Pawendkisgou Yanogo3
1Laboratory LERMIT, Department of Geography, University Joseph KI-ZERBO, 06 BP 9507, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. beneboscoh@gmail.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 12, 2024
概括
未来的气候变化可能会减少布基纳法索的草原面积. 虽然近几十年来草原的增加多于减少,但根据气候变化情景,预测显示到2080年草原的大幅下降.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 气候变化研究研究气候变化研究
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 草原生态系统对布基纳法索的环境和经济至关重要.
- 了解气候变化对这些草原的影响对于可持续的土地管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析未来气候变化对布基纳法索草原覆盖面的潜在影响.
- 预测不同气候情景下的未来草原覆盖面变化.
主要方法:
- 利用MODIS NDVI 250m时间序列数据 (2000-2022) 来监测草原变化.
- 采用随机森林回归 (RFR) 模型,整合气候和环境预测因素.
- 综合CMIP6气候模型数据根据SSP 126和SSP 585情景进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2022年期间,55%的草原面积显示出非显著的生产率变化.
- 在此期间,草原生产率在35%的面积上升,在10%的面积下降.
- 未来的预测 (2061-2080) 显示,在SSP 126和SSP 585两种情景下,草地覆盖面的净减少.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将对布基纳法索的草地覆盖面产生负面影响.
- 调查结果突出了适应战略的必要性,以减轻气候变化对草原的影响.
- 这项研究为布基纳法索的政策制定者和土地管理者提供了有价值的数据.
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