在COVID-19大流行中探索风险感知的指数级敏感性
Min-Kyu Kim1, Bo-Eun Lee1, Ji-Bum Chung1
1Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 13, 2024
概括
公众对韩国COVID-19病例的风险感知显示了对数,而不是线性关系,表明了心理麻木效应. 对地方政府的信任显著影响了这些不断变化的风险感知.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 行为科学 行为科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 风险感知是一个动态的过程,受到不断变化的危险信息的影响.
- 了解公众对COVID-19大流行病的反应对于有效的卫生危机管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析韩国COVID-19病例数量与公众风险感知之间的关系.
- 在整个大流行期间调查风险感知的时间动态.
主要方法:
- 使用时间序列分析 (自回归集成移动平均数与解释变量).
- 分析了来自70多个每两周重复的横截面调查的数据.
- 量化了COVID-19病例数量与公众风险感知水平之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在COVID-19病例和风险感知之间发现了对数相关性,而不是线性相关性.
- 这表明"心理麻木效应",风险感知对变化的敏感度呈指数级.
- 公众对地方政府的信任显著影响了风险感知.
结论:
- 公众对流行病的风险感知与病例数量并没有线性增加.
- 精神麻木和对治理的信任是塑造公众对卫生危机反应的关键因素.
- 当地政府在风险沟通和管理方面的作用在流行病期间至关重要.
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