与能源安全相关的风险以及到2050年实现美国净零排放目标的追求:动态ARDL模拟建模方法
Ojonugwa Usman1,2,3, Oktay Ozkan4, Andrew Adewale Alola5,6
1Department of Economics, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey. ousman@ticaret.edu.tr.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 13, 2024
概括
能源安全风险阻碍了美国的净零排放目标,但可再生能源和绿色技术投资可以减轻这些挑战. 促进外国直接投资也是实现2050年目标的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 气候政策 气候政策
背景情况:
- 全球冲突,如俄罗斯-乌克兰战争,增加了美国的能源安全风险.
- 这些能源安全风险对美国到2050年实现净零排放目标的进展的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查能源安全风险对美国负载能力因子 (LCF) 的影响,这是实现净零排放目标的关键指标.
- 分析外国直接投资 (FDI),可再生能源消费,绿色技术,经济扩张和城市化对LCF的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用美国从1970年到2018年的时间序列数据集.
- 采用动态自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模拟模型.
- 使用多变量量子位对量子位回归验证的结果.
主要成果:
- 能源安全风险会对长期净零排放目标产生负面影响,其影响在大约五年内会减弱.
- 外国直接投资 (FDI) 流入,可再生能源消费和绿色技术在长期和短期内都对LCF产生积极影响.
- 经济扩张和城市化对LCF产生负面影响,阻碍了长期和短期的环境质量.
结论:
- 减轻能源安全风险对于实现美国2050年净零排放目标至关重要.
- 促进可再生能源消费,绿色技术投资和外国直接投资流入是推的战略.
- 解决经济扩张和城市化对环境质量的负面影响至关重要.
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