揭示气候在空间同步虫爆发中的作用,可能会带来虫爆发的风险
Xinyue Liu1,2, Dongxiao Zhang2,3, Xiaogang He1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Science advances
|February 14, 2024
概括
沙漠虫疫情对粮食安全构成重大威胁. 这项研究揭示了由气候驱动的同步虫风险,而变暖可能会增加未来的疫情.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 沙漠虫 (Schistocerca gregaria) 是对全球作物生产和粮食安全的重大威胁.
- 空间同步的虫爆发放大了这些危机,需要大陆范围的理解.
- 预测性控制策略需要洞察复合虫风险及其气候驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数据驱动的框架,用于评估中东和北非 (MENA) 的复合沙漠虫爆发风险.
- 阐明气候因素在调节沙漠虫动态和空间流行中的作用.
- 预测气候变暖对未来虫爆发的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个数据驱动的框架来分析虫爆发风险.
- 从1985年到2020年,对虫爆发和同步风险事件的时空空间分析.
- 气候驱动因素的评估,包括极端降雨,风,洪水和厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO).
主要成果:
- 在MENA地区,超过五分之一的高风险国家对在1985年至2020年间经历了空间同步的虫风险.
- 同时的风和洪水是同步爆发的主要因素.
- 极端降雨事件与干旱地区虫入侵增加有关.
- 气候变化,特别是ENSO,显著调节了虫的空间流行.
- 预计气候变暖将增加虫疫情,在西中亚出现新的热点.
结论:
- 由于气候变化和极端天气,MENA地区的复合虫风险很大.
- 预计气候变化将加剧沙漠虫问题,影响粮食安全.
- 需要加强全球协调,以应对不断变化的气候下虫疫情日益严重的威胁.
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