检查社会脆弱性指数与COVID-19发病率和死亡率之间的关联,使用时空贝叶斯模型
Daniel P Johnson1, Claudio Owusu2
1Indiana University - Purdue University at Indianapolis, United States.
Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
|February 14, 2024
概括
这项研究比较了CDC社会脆弱性指数 (SVI) 和社会脆弱性指数 (SoVI) 以预测印第安纳州的COVID-19风险. SoVI更好地预测了COVID-19死亡,而CDC SVI预测了感染,突出了这些社会脆弱性措施的差异.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 社会脆弱性在流行病期间对人口健康结果产生重大影响.
- 现有的指数,如美国疾病预防控制中心的SVI和危险脆弱性和弹性研究所的SoVI,旨在量化这些漏洞.
- 了解这些指数对COVID-19病例和死亡的不同预测能力对于有针对性的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较美国CDC社会脆弱性指数 (SVI) 和社会脆弱性指数 (SoVI) 与印第安纳州的COVID-19病例和死亡有关的预测能力.
- 分析COVID-19感染和死亡率的时空模式.
- 识别有助于增加风险的特定社会脆弱领域.
主要方法:
- 印第安纳州使用的COVID-19病例和死亡数据 (2020年3月-2021年3月) 汇总到人口普查区级.
- 获取和处理的输入变量,域和复合措施,用于CDC SVI和SoVI.
- 开发并应用贝叶斯的时空生态回归模型来评估相对风险.
主要成果:
- 确定了印第安纳州各地COVID-19感染和死亡的独特的时空热点.
- 疾病预防控制中心SVI的1个百分点增加与SARS-CoV-2感染风险增加了6% (RR=1.06).
- 在SoVI的1个百分点增加与COVID-19死亡风险增加45% (RR=1.45) 相关.
- 社会经济地位,年龄和种族/种族是感染和死亡风险的重要领域特定预测因素.
结论:
- 美国疾病预防控制中心的SVI和SoVI都在了解社会脆弱性在COVID-19中的作用方面表现出实用性.
- 两个指数之间的相对风险估计的显著差异表明方法差异影响了预测.
- 当地时空分析对于完善COVID-19脆弱性指数和为公共卫生战略提供信息是有价值的.
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