确定最佳地理加权函数和空间时间模型的估计 - 使用加权最小平方的地理加权面板回归
Sifriyani1, I Nyoman Budiantara2, M Fariz Fadillah Mardianto3
1Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mulawarman University, Samarinda, Indonesia.
MethodsX
|February 15, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一个使用地理加权面板回归 (GWPR) 分析印度尼西亚粮食安全的时空模型. 该模型准确地确定了影响各省份粮食安全指数的因素.
科学领域:
- 空间统计的空间统计.
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 粮食安全是印度尼西亚的一个关键问题,需要先进的分析方法.
- 传统模型可能无法充分捕捉粮食安全的空间异质性和时间动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个时空模型来分析印度尼西亚的粮食安全指数.
- 通过整合位置和时间来确定影响粮食安全指数的关键因素.
- 在回归分析中克服空间异质性和空间效应的局限性.
主要方法:
- 使用地理加权面板回归 (GWPR) 开发一个时空模型,用一个内部估计器.
- 应用地理权重 (高斯式,双方形,指数核) 并通过交叉验证 (CV) 确定最佳带宽.
- 根据印度尼西亚34个省份的粮食安全指数数据,使用权重最小方形 (WLS) 进行参数估计.
主要成果:
- 地理加权面板回归 (GWPR) 模型表现出高准确度,达到92.78%的模型适应度.
- 记录了3.41的根平均平方误差 (RMSE),表明了该模型的预测精度.
- 该研究成功地绘制和分析了粮食安全指数的时空分布.
结论:
- 开发的时空统计模型 (GWPR) 对于分析食品安全等复杂问题是有效和准确的.
- 整合空间和时间元素可以更细致地了解影响粮食安全指数的因素.
- 在印度尼西亚,GWPR方法为与粮食安全相关的政策制定提供了一个强大的框架.
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