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风险比率的内置选择偏差是使用结构性因果模型正式形成的
Richard A J Post1, Edwin R van den Heuvel2, Hein Putter3,4
1Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands. r.a.j.post@tue.nl.
Lifetime data analysis
|February 15, 2024
概括
即使在随机试验中,危险比率也具有固有的偏差,并且缺乏因果解释. 这项研究表明,由于未观察到的因素,它偏离了真正的因果关系,而是主张生存概率对比.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 因果推理因果推理
背景情况:
- 危险比率被广泛使用,但缺乏明确的因果解释.
- 内置的选择偏差会随着时间的推移影响危险比率,即使是在随机对照试验中.
- 暴露和未暴露组之间的可交换性随着随访时间的增加而减少.
研究的目的:
- 正式化观察到的危险比率的预期如何偏离因果效应.
- 调查异质性对危险率 (脆弱性) 和影响修改对危险比率的影响.
- 对于具有效果异质性的情况来定义因果危险比率.
主要方法:
- 正式化预期观察到的危险比率的演变.
- 在存在效果异质性的情况下,定义因果危险比率.
- 用脆弱分布 (马,逆高斯分布,复合波桑分布) 和效果修饰器的示例来说明.
主要成果:
- 预期观察到的危险比率被证明是等于潜变量 (脆弱性和修饰) 预期的生存条件的比率.
- 这些例子表明,单个观察到的危险比值可以与多个因果危险比值相对应.
- 该研究强调,需要进行无法测试的假设来将观察到的危险比与因果关系等同起来.
结论:
- 危险比率不是对因果关系的可靠衡量标准,如果没有做出无法测试的假设.
- 危险率的异质性和效果的改变从根本上扭曲了危险比率的解释.
- 建议对比生存概率作为更合适的因果推断估计.
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