模拟可持续性科学中的机构异质性
Michael R Davidson1,2, Tatiana Filatova3, Wei Peng4,5
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.
概括
了解制度,管理人类行为的规则,对于可持续性至关重要. 这些规则的建模揭示了它们对减缓气候变化的成本和减少排放的重大影响,突出了可持续性科学中综合方法的需要.
科学领域:
- 可持续性科学 可持续性科学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 可持续性结果取决于自然,工程和社会经济系统.
- 机构 (正式和非正式的规则) 极大地影响了人类行为和系统动态.
- 当前的计算模型往往缺乏对机构影响的强有力的表现.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较综合三个建模方法 (综合评估,工程经济优化,基于代理的建模) 来代表机构.
- 调查异质机构对气候缓解系统的影响.
- 探索计算模型的潜力,以纳入机构变革,以获得更好的可持续性见解.
主要方法:
- 综合评估建模,工程经济优化和基于代理的建模的比较综合.
- 对气候减缓系统进行建模实验的开发,包括正式政策,机构协调,非正式态度和规范.
- 分析机构变化的总和分布影响.
主要成果:
- 将机构纳入气候缓解模型可以产生可衡量的,尽管不均的,总体影响.
- 机构的分配影响在各种参与者之间是显著的.
- 遗漏机构可以膨胀缓解成本,并掩盖加速减排的机会.
结论:
- 机构在可持续性转型的速度和结构中发挥着关键作用.
- 现有的建模方法对于代表机构的潜力尚未得到充分利用.
- 未来的研究议程呼吁进行跨学科的合作,以使可持续性模型的制度变革成为内在的.
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