对中国不同供暖脱碳路径的空气质量和健康益处
Kaiyun Liu1, Kun Wang2, Shuting Jia1
1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
The Science of the total environment
|February 15, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中国的供暖行业依赖于众多的炉,需要为气候和空气质量目标实现脱碳.
- 当前的供暖系统对空气污染和健康问题作出了重大贡献.
- 制定有效的脱碳战略对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国不同供暖脱碳路径对空气质量和健康的益处.
- 为制定国家和区域战略制定制定一个综合建模框架.
- 在省级确定最佳的脱碳战略.
主要方法:
- 综合建模框架,结合设施级排放清单,社区多尺度空气质量 (CMAQ) 模型和全球暴露死亡率模型 (GEMM).
- 探索三个脱碳途径:煤炭燃烧工业炉 (CFIB) 退役,煤炭转化为气体,煤炭转化为生物质.
- 分析到2060年减少PM2.5度和避免过早死亡的情况.
主要成果:
- 煤气转化提供了最大的PM2.5减排潜力 (2.8μg/m3),并可以在2060年前避免23100例过早死亡.
- 煤炭转化为生物质提供了巨大的好处,成本约为三分之二低.
- 最佳途径在区域上有所不同,特定的省份倾向于天然气转化,CFIB退休或生物质转化.
结论:
- 通过战略途径去碳化中国的供暖系统,可以显著改善空气质量和公共卫生.
- 煤炭转化为气体是空气质量和健康益处最有效的战略.
- 煤炭转化为生物质提供了一个具有成本效益的替代方案,具有相当大的好处,特别是在生物质丰富的地区.
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