基于股权的碳中和计划导致跨区域的煤炭泄漏和工业搬迁
Ziqiao Zhou1, Xiaotian Ma1, Silu Zhang1
1College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
iScience
|February 16, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 中国是煤炭的主要消费国,面临着经济发展和实现碳中和的双重挑战.
- 为了平衡能源安全与雄心勃勃的气候目标,需要战略性政策干预.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估2060年以效率为基础和以股权为基础的碳中和政策对中国能源结构,经济增长和工业结构的影响.
- 分析煤炭减排政策在不同地区的分布效应.
主要方法:
- 将基于效率和基于公平的碳中和政策纳入数值模型.
- 对煤炭减排方案及其经济和结构后果的定量评估.
主要成果:
- 从2017年到2060年,全国煤炭强度预计将减少95%以上,这是由于广泛的煤炭逐步淘汰造成的.
- 基于效率的政策可能会导致国家国内生产总值大幅损失 (到2060年将达到4951亿美元),不成比例地影响较不发达地区,特别是中国北部.
- 基于股权的政策可以减轻中国北部的经济负担,但可能会导致煤炭密集型产业向北地区转移,从而增加体现煤炭消费.
结论:
- 到2060年,中国可以实现显著的煤炭减排,但政策设计对经济结果和区域差异产生重大影响.
- 基于股权的政策,在缓解区域经济困难的同时,有可能通过工业迁移加剧体现的碳排放.
- 在中国的能源转型中,综合政策方法对于平衡经济发展,碳中和和区域公平至关重要.
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